The last places in this year’s Champions League proper were confirmed last night (Arsenal ably assisted by Eduardo’s theatrics) and the final 32 teams – including Chelsea – are in the pot for the draw for the first group stage. The draw takes place today at 5pm.
Happily, Chelsea are once again ranked 2nd in Europe according to UEFA’s coefficient system, comfortably inside the required top eight needed to qualify as a first seed. Thankfully this means it is impossible to draw the likes of Barcelona, Seville or Bayern Munich, along with the other English sides.
Less happily, the lower seed ‘pots’ somehow look far tougher than they have in previous years, meaning Chelsea could potentially face a very tough draw indeed. Chelsea could be drawn against any number of tricky second seed opponents including Real Madrid, Lyon, Mourinho’s Inter or Juventus and there are also difficult sides in pots three and four including Atletico, Wolfsburg and Bordeaux.
So the very possible worst case scenario could see Chelsea grouped with Real Madrid, Atletico and Wolfsburg, but a group including Inter, Bordeaux and either Standard Liege or Maccabai Haifa would be just as possible and likely just as tough. On the other side of the coin, a draw against AZ Alkmaar, Besiktas and Debreceni (no, I haven’t heard of them either) would go down very well…
Unlike some of our English rivals, we haven’t always had the luck of the draw in the early stages of the competition, so it would be a fairly safe bet to assume that Chelsea will draw Real and United will draw Debreceni. That said, football is a funny game and has a habit of throwing up the ‘interesting’ ties like United v. Ronaldo and Chelsea v. Inter. Look out for bridgeviews.co.uk’s take on the draw this evening.
With far-further reaching consequences than this year’s draw however, this season could conceivably be the last year of the so-called big four’s monopoly on the Champions League spots. The inevitable rise of Manchester City and the strong start by Spurs do suggest that the big four may finally come under siege this year. And, contrary to what many would have you believe, this wouldn’t be entirely without precedent – Everton broke into the top four in 2005 and Spurs really should have done back in 2006.
Other factors are combining to potentially reduce the big four’s chances. New rules at the qualifying stage mean the fourth placed team face a far harder route to the group stages than in previous years – hence Arsenal’s games against Celtic. Furthermore, if by chance Spain’s clubs do start to dominate and Italy’s somehow up their game, poor performances from one or two English sides could see the English Champions League contingent reduced from four to three within a few years.
We are, very probably, on the cusp of change at the top end of English football. The current elite – including Chelsea – will need to jockey for position over the next couple of years to make sure they’re not the ones left behind.
You might also be interested to read:
- It’s more competitive at the top – just one of ten things we have learned from the league games so far
- UEFA’s attitude is the real disgrace – the organisation’s lack of accountability spits in the face of fans and the game
We can't draw Real AND Atletico as they play in the same country (not to mention city!).
I don't mind who we get, in fact I'd rather watch us play (and probably beat) the likes of Inter or Real than Porto or Alkmaar. It's what this competition is about, measuring yourself against the best. Unfortunately we seem to draw the same few teams every years (Barca, Liverpool, Porto) and rarely get the chance to see us up against the other big guns, except in pre-season.
Posted by: Chris | 27 August 2009 at 12:57
And an additional thought, who had heard of CFR Cluj before last year? Yet they provided two very stern tests last year - hence there really are no easy games in this competition, especially when lesser known teams are fighting tooth and nail to enjoy what could be their one year in the sun. Much like Dan Petrescu's Romanian side, now there's a thought, the Special One and Super Dan coming back to the bridge...
Posted by: Chris | 27 August 2009 at 13:01
Chris - thanks for your comments. You're right of course about clubs from the same country not being able to draw each other. Had a bit of a mind blank there, possibly thinking back to the group games against Liverpool not so many seasons ago. Was that because they'd won it the previous year and yet finished 5th, so needed special UEFA treatment to let them back in?
Also agree that it would be great to see us play some other sides for a change. From that perspective Real would be great.
You're also right about there being no 'easy' games, although of course some are easier than others and in a long season there's no need to wish for games to be harder than they need to be. Arguably we should have made easier work of Cluj though...
Who would Chelsea fans most like to see us drawn against this afternoon?
Posted by: Russell Saunders | 27 August 2009 at 13:10
While it'd be potentially more entertaining to draw the likes of the names listed above, you'd be crazy to not want to play a lesser team in the early stages. Perhaps a team like VfB Stuttgart or someone on par with them. I don't really subscribe to the "playing harder teams throughout makes you even better for the finals" thought process in this case. Win and advance. The less strain, the better.
Posted by: Pete | 27 August 2009 at 13:40
in the early games since as far as i remember we will be missing players through suspension I would rather we get easier teams since the suspensions in my opinion are not fare in the view that the ref got nothing.
Posted by: Hirad | 27 August 2009 at 13:53
I take the point about suspensions, we'll certainly miss Drogba in those games but maybe it will provide Sturridge or Kalou a chance to step up and prove their worth.
Looking through the 2nd seeds, I don't really see any team that we shouldn't take four points off of.
Mourinho's inter are desparately lacking dynamism and pace, even with the impending arrival of Snjeider, and so we should be too strong for them (as we were in pre-season and Man Utd were last year).
Real are the obvious threats and they'll no doubt be destroyers of poor defending, but Ashley Cole, Bosingwa, Ivanovic and Essien have all shown an ability to mark the world's best out of a game for 90 minutes.
Juve were reasonably comfortably beaten last year (no thanks to some dreadful referreing - makes a change!) although they've made some good signings and should go close in a weakened Serie A.
Lyon, Porto and CSKA are seasoned UCL teams and will provide stiff challenges, but having each lost their key player (Benzema, Lopez and of course Zhirkov) it remains to be seen how strong they are. Alkmaar had a great season last year and have some handy players, but the loss of Louis Van Gaal will be huge. As will the lack of experience.
And then there's Rangers, they will provide a great atmosphere though are lucky to be seeded this high given some poor performances in recent years, I think this would be a nice alternative to Real or Inter, perhaps a happy medium?
Atletico, Fiorentina and Wolfbsurg are the dangers from the lower pots, although Atleti are incredibly inconsistent, Wolfsburg (like AZ) have lost their title winning manager (although retained the excellent Eden Dzeko) and wouldn't you just love to welcome a certain Mr Mutu back to the Bridge. What an interesting reception that would be.
And one last note, it's worth noting that some of our poorest performances in this competition have come against supposedly weak teams. I am specifically thinking of Rosenborg at home (1-1), Levski at home (2-0), Betis away (0-1) and Cluj and Schalke away (both 0-0). Contrast to the wonderful wins in Valencia, at home to Barcelona and even going back to the draws with Milan in 1999. Of course there are exceptions to the rules (Roma last year - Mr Scolari) but nothing brings out the best in Chelsea than the big European nights. With our house finally in order, I say bring it on...
Posted by: Chris | 27 August 2009 at 15:05
The draw is done, and its Athletico and Porto that we have to worry about and well as good as Kalou can be sometimes ( he is our most inconsistent performer ) I really would love our team signing a proven Striker or at the very least including Sheva for the CL squad group stage.
Posted by: Hirad | 27 August 2009 at 19:54